Wicked: For Good Sets Preview Record, Box Office Hopes High
After hauling in a staggering $30.8 million in early screenings, the sequel to Wicked faces the twin tests of sustained box-office dominance and real cultural impact.
When Wicked: For Good scored an eye-watering $30.8 million in preview screenings, it arguably reshuffled the expectations of what a musical-film sequel can achieve.
According to Variety, this haul marks the biggest preview weekend of the year and puts the film on track for an opening as high as $150 million‐to‐$180 million.
That kind of figure in the pre-weekend window typically belongs to tent poles anchored in franchise strength, built-in fandom, and enormous marketing momentum, and Wicked: For Good appears to check every box.
A Franchise With a Head Start
The original film in this folly of green and pink launched in 2024 to massive global success, comfortably crossing the $700 million mark and securing its place as one of the highest‐grossing musical adaptations of the century.
That legacy gives the sequel both a runway and a burden, the runway because the audience is already primed, and the burden because the film must exceed a high bar or risk being labeled a disappointment.
With star power like Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo returning, and director Jon M. Chu doubling down on spectacle, expectations are more about “How high can it go?”
Preview Figures as Promise and Pressure
If $30.8 million in previews signals one thing, it is demand amongst the masses.
Audiences are turning out early and aggressively, but from a business perspective, demand in pre-release is only the first act, i.e., holding power, word-of-mouth, and global expansion determine whether a film becomes a cultural and financial landmark or merely a successful weekend medal.
Industry analysts are already debating the shape of the opening weekend, but they are also scanning the long game, such as sustaining a genre not usually associated with blockbuster stats, navigating international markets hungry for musicals, and translating fandom into ticket sales beyond early adopters.
The Symphony of Marketing, Fandom, and Timing
This release arrived at a savvy moment, as a holiday-frame release positions it to capitalise on early family attendance and social-media momentum.
The marketing campaign leaned into nostalgia for the original Oz lore, while borrowing from Broadway discipleship and modern pop culture.
It rode on built-in anticipation from fans who have waited for the story to continue, and who have invested emotionally in the mythos of the witches of Oz.
That emotional investment translates into pre-sales and buzzing social traction, making the $30.8 million preview figure seem less accidental and more the result of orchestrated expectation.
Yet the Risks Are Real
No matter how strong the start, the sequel faces critical pitfalls. There is genre fatigue, as musicals don’t dominate box offices in the same way superhero franchises do, and sustaining momentum beyond the core fan base is harder.
Then, there’s sequel syndrome, as the film must expand its universe without alienating viewers who loved the first for its freshness. And finally, global markets may respond differently, as what plays in North America may not echo in Latin America, Asia, or Europe at the same scale, especially with musicals carrying cultural specificity.
There’s also the question of competition and cost, big budgets demand big returns, and if the narrative or execution falls short of hype, the consequences will be perceived in profitability rather than just gross totals.
What This Means For the Industry
Wicked: For Good’s early success primes a broader conversation, since studios will view its performance as proof, and as caution, of how strategic franchise building can move musicals back into the blockbuster conversation.
Producers know at this moment that with the right IP, the right stars, and the right timing, musicals might again become mainstream mass-market events.
But it also cautions that the margin for error shrinks rapidly, as if this film stumbles after a strong start, future green-lighting will be far more conservative. In short, the industry is watching for what this film signals about what kinds of stories achieve scale in tomorrow’s marketplace.
Final Thought
Wicked: For Good sprinted into the preview weekend.
A $30.8 million figure is eye-opening, but the real story will unfold on opening weekend, the weeks after, and in global arenas. Will it solidify musical cinema’s return to mainstream blockbuster status, or will it fall into the familiar pattern of a strong start, but a fizzled finish?
For now the yellow brick road has lights, fans, and momentum, and the next act will determine whether the film becomes an enduring chapter or a spectacular one-time run.
